Dutch GP quitting when winning

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The Dutch GP's Exit Strategy: How Smart Commercial Planning Beats Blind Growth

Right, so Formula 1 circuits are basically like desperate nightclub owners. They'll do a lot to get on the calendar. Upgrade their facilities, negotiate complex deals, and probably promise to host races on the moon if Liberty Media asks nicely enough.

Which is why I like the direction that the Dutch Grand Prix took.

The Dutch Grand Prix at Zandvoort announced they're walking away from Formula 1 after 2026.

Voluntarily. While Max Verstappen is still at the height of his career (it’s not great at the Red Bull camp, but still).

While 305,000 fans packed the track in 2024. While generating economic impact, this would make tourism boards weep with joy.

It's like watching someone quit their dream job because they've figured out the dream is actually a nightmare with really good marketing.

It might be a really smart business decision in modern motorsport.

The Numbers (And Why They're Interesting)

Let's talk about what Zandvoort actually built, because the numbers are interesting (these are estimates)

When they returned to F1 in 2021. After a 36-year gap that's longer than most marriages, a university study found they generated €44.5 million in economic impact across the Amsterdam Metropolitan Region. Not bad for a weekend, right?

Of that €44.5 million, only €2.7 million was actually spent in Zandvoort itself. The rest was scattered across hotels, restaurants, and car parks throughout the region like confetti at a wedding nobody wanted to pay for.

Meanwhile, Zandvoort pays somewhere between €15-20 million just for the privilege of hosting F1. That's before they've hired a single security guard or bought a single traffic cone.

So let's do the math.

They create €44.5 million in value for everyone else, capture a fraction of €2.7 million for themselves, and pay out €15-20 million in fees.

By 2024, they'd grown attendance to 305,000 people over three days. That's more than twice their COVID-restricted 2021 numbers. Sounds like success right, but Circuit Director Robert van Overdijk had this to say: "We need a sold-out event on all three days to pay the bills. Saturday and Sunday aren't enough.”

Think about that for a moment. They need literally perfect execution—100% capacity across three days—just to break even. It's like running a restaurant where you need every table full for breakfast, lunch, and dinner, seven days a week, or you go bankrupt. Except the restaurant also has to pay Gordon Ramsay €20 million annually for the right to serve food.

Oh, and did I mention they also get hit with a €3 "fun tax" per attendee? That's nearly a million euros in extra costs because apparently the Dutch government looked at this precarious business model and thought, "You know what this needs? More taxes!”

Why They're Actually Leaving (Spoiler: It's Not What You Think)

Circuit Director Robert van Overdijk delivered a message in the Dutch directness: "Unlike many other countries, we don't receive government support, so at the end of the day we are responsible for the bottom line."

This is the key to understanding everything. While circuits like Spa-Francorchamps get government backing, and Silverstone benefits from tourism support, Zandvoort is out there flying solo like Tom Cruise in Top Gun, except instead of looking cool, they're hemorrhaging money.

The "Verstappen Effect" that everyone loves talking about? It's actually a massive business liability. Here's what one observer noted: "The novelty and excitement of winning a title is gone. It doesn't matter how many more he wins, it won't beat the excitement and attention of 2021.”

Max's dominance created their opportunity, but dominance eventually becomes routine. And routine doesn't sell 305,000 tickets at premium prices.

They've recognized something that most businesses refuse to admit: sometimes your ceiling is lower than your ambitions. They can't expand capacity (physical constraints), can't significantly raise prices (market limits), and can't extend the event (F1 won't let them). They've mathematically optimized themselves into a corner.

Van Overdijk put it perfectly: "Why would you keep going until you can't carry on anymore? We have decided to go out on a high and not when we're over the hill.”

It's the sporting equivalent of leaving the party while you're still having fun, rather than staying until someone calls the police and you wake up regretting everything.

The Smart Play Nobody's Talking About

By announcing their 2026 exit now, they've basically played the ultimate power move.

First, they've shown F1 they're not desperate. Nothing strengthens your negotiating position quite like demonstrating you're willing to walk away. They might not even renegotiate with F1.

Second, they're preserving their brand value. Better to have people say "I wish the Dutch GP was still around" than "Thank God the Dutch GP finally ended."

Third, they're freeing up resources for actually sustainable revenue streams. That infrastructure they built works perfectly well for MotoGP, DTM, Formula E, concerts, corporate events, and probably monster truck rallies if they're feeling adventurous. Here in Montreal, the track takes a backseat to Osheaga, the giant music festival.

Most importantly, they've recognized that their optimal commercial strategy is strategic contraction with maximum brand preservation.

What This Means for Everyone Else

Zandvoort's decision exposes some uncomfortable truths about modern sports business.

The sports industry has this pathological obsession with growth. More events, bigger venues, higher prices, global expansion. But Zandvoort figured out that sometimes the smartest play is recognizing your limits and optimizing within them.

Most circuits would rather struggle for years, gradually declining in quality and fan experience, than admit their business model doesn't work. Zandvoort chose to exit while people still love them. It's like a musician releasing one perfect album instead of churning out mediocre content for decades.

They've also highlighted F1's structural problem. The sport's fee structure essentially prices out any venue that doesn't have government backing. It's created a two-tier system where state-sponsored circuits can afford to lose money for "tourism benefits" while private operators face impossible economics.

For other sports properties, the lesson is clear: understanding your constraints is liberating. Once you know your ceiling, you can optimize for sustainability rather than chasing unsustainable growth.

The Passion Truth

Zandvoort's problem isn't unique. How many other circuits are quietly struggling with similar economics? How many "successful" venues are actually barely breaking even?

F1's current model works brilliantly for Liberty Media and the teams. For race promoters, it's becoming unsustainable unless you've got government backing or unlimited resources.

Zandvoort's exit might be the canary in the coal mine. As F1 expands to 24 races and fees continue rising, more privately-funded venues might find themselves in similar positions.

The sport talks constantly about sustainability and long-term thinking. Zandvoort just showed what that actually looks like in practice.

What's Next

Van Overdijk mentioned they could have continued "whether or not in a rotation system." That suggests F1 was willing to accommodate them, possibly sharing European aces on alternating years.

But they said no. They'd rather focus on building a sustainable, year-round business than remain dependent on a single weekend that requires perfect execution just to break even.

Their infrastructure investment can support other racing series, concerts, corporate events, and potentially even real estate development. None of those require €20 million annual fees or perfect weather for three straight days.

If the analogies are getting too much, please let me know.

The Takeaway

The Dutch Grand Prix’s commercial strategy can’t serve for one major series when it’s privately owned.

They created massive economic value, delivered an incredible fan experience, and built one of F1's most beloved events. They just couldn't capture enough of that value to justify the risk and costs involved.

When we are all so obsessed with growth metrics and expansion, they chose strategic discipline. They looked at their constraints, calculated their risks, and made the hard decision to preserve long-term value over short-term revenue.

That's the kind of clear-eyed strategic thinking that most companies are too proud or too desperate to attempt.

Whether other sports properties will learn from their example remains to be seen. But as the economics of hosting major sporting events become increasingly challenging, Zandvoort's exit strategy might prove prophetic rather than premature.

Sometimes quitting while you're ahead isn't giving up. It's the smartest thing you can do.

What other commercial strategies in sports should I look at? Thinking of looking at the US Open for next week.